Webinar: NFP Preview (12.1.2016)
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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at U.S. markets ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report out of the United States. If you’d like to read more about what to look for ahead of tomorrow, please check out our Market Talk article from this morning entitled, NFP Preview: The First Test of Post-Trump Data.
- We first looked at the current posture of the U.S. Dollar after the currency surged to fresh 13-year highs during the month of November. Given that the Greenback is staying perched next to resistance, this can make going into the release with outsized exposure a difficult prospect. However, traders can use the reaction to the NFP print in the effort of lining-up longer-term setups, as we look at below.
- If NFP comes out above the 175k expectation, we’ll likely see some element of USD strength. But given a strong batch of longer-term resistance just above current prices, we may need a significant beat to really drive beyond that resistance. If we see price action in the Dollar move up to resistance with sellers entering the fray (which could be likely with a print between +175k to +200k, this can open the door for short-USD exposure in markets that have been previously strong, such as GBP/USD or NZD/USD. If you’d like to read more about the context around the GBP/USD setup, please check out our technical article from yesterday entitled, Bouncing in a Fibonacci-based Range.
- The converse scenario may be more interesting for long-term strategy. With USD remaining so exuberantly strong, there has been little chance to load-in on the long-side of the move. Should NFP come out below expectations tomorrow, this could bring on some element of USD-weakness that could open the door to bullish continuation setups in the Greenback. For that purpose, we looked at both USD/JPY and USD/CAD as potential options. For more information behind the USD/JPY setup, please check out our article from earlier in the week that could become even more relevant with this scenario tomorrow entitled, JPY: How to Work With the Trend that Barely Bends.
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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