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What Dramatic November Market Moves Will Continue, Stall, Reverse?

What Dramatic November Market Moves Will Continue, Stall, Reverse?

2016-12-01 05:36:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • There was a remarkable level of volatility through November with strong charges from equities to FX to rates
  • The most news-worthy moves - equities, volatility - through November don't look as convincing standing back
  • Meanwhile, an unprecedented move in US Treasury yields and lesser move for the Dollar, Gold may spark new trend

See the DailyFX Analysts' 4Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

We have closed out a remarkable active month for the markets. However, some of the most prominent headlines through the past weeks don't measure up to the hype in performance much less the potential for follow through moving forward. On the one hand, we have the endless amount of ink spent on the S&P 500 and US equities through the period. A record high and impressive rise after the US election is certainly impressive, but doesn't reflect the birth of a new trend nor does it compensate for the stretched sentiment and fundamental imbalance between price and value.

For contrast, the incredible 30 percent-plus rally in US Treasury yields through this past month is the biggest on record and marks a turn after a structural bear trend. Given the backdrop in the global financial system - fading effectiveness of monetary policy, stretched risk appetite amid record low returns, the rise of protectionism - we may be seeing a genuine seismic change in the market with opportunities that stretch beyond direct Treasury-related assets.

Among some of the other moves this past month that present a contrasting view whether we evaluate them on a monthly versus daily basis (technically and fundamental) include: the Dollar, volatility and even gold. The VIX has seen a sharp decline through November as was expected with the passing of the US Presidential election. Yet, when we look at the full history of the index, we find that we are near a natural low. For the Dollar, a strong month pushed the ICE Dollar Index to a 13-year high. The rally breaks an extended period of congestion, but that doesn't mean it is the continuation of a larger trend. It could be an exhaustion move on a fundamental and technical basis. For Gold, the month's move doesn't look impressive statistically; but the big picture paints a balance of potential that we may not appreciate just focusing on the past few months or even years. What do markets present with a bigger picture review? We look at the contrasts after the close of November in this Strategy Video.

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