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Webinar: Trading the USD Pullback (11.29.2016)

Webinar: Trading the USD Pullback (11.29.2016)

2016-11-29 20:07:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist

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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at setups in major FX pairs. After last week’s exuberant run as the Greenback staged fresh 13-year highs, the currency is pulling back and this can open the door to trend-continuation setups in the weeks ahead, as traders can look to buy ‘higher low’ support in pairs like USD/JPY or USD/CAD.

- We started off by looking at EUR/USD, as many appear to be trying to trade USD-strength in this pairing. This could be dangerous as EUR/USD is working with some significant long-term support levels. The bounce from yesterday took place at the same low from December of 2015; and just below that we have the major psychological level at 1.0500 and then the March 2015 low at 1.0462. This could be a dicey area to get aggressive with bearish continuation moves; and this may actually line-up a bullish setup in the coming months should this long-term batch of support hold up.

- The first bullish-USD setup that we looked at was in USD/JPY, where the pair has surged by 11.5% since the lows on the night of the U.S. Presidential Election. The big level of interest here is at 111.618, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 18-year move in the pair. This level had helped to set support in February and March of this year, and earlier this week showed-up as support. This could potentially be the longer-term ‘higher-low’ that could open the door to bullish setups. We’ve just triggered an analyst pick on this setup, and if you’d like to read more about the analysis behind this theme, please check out our Market Talk article from this morning entitled, How to Work with the Trend that Barely Bends.

- We then looked at GBP/USD as one of the few outliers that is not setting new lows as the Dollar surged last week. While USD was setting fresh 13-year highs, GBP/USD stayed in a relatively calm range with decent adherence to support at 1.2325. This could open the door for a really attractive setup in the event of USD-weakness. To read more, please check out our Technical Analysis article from last week entitled, GBP/USD: Bullish Despite USD’s 13-Year Highs.

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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