NFP Preview – USD at Support Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls
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Talking Points:
- In this webinar, we used price action to look at USD-pairs ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report and Tuesday’s U.S. Presidential elections. We discussed the backdrop going into this NFP report in this morning’s Market Talk article entitled, A Weak Dollar and Strong GBP Could be Very Vulnerable for NFP.
-We started off by looking at the Euro after a strong week of price action. EUR/USD is running into a zone of resistance at the moment, taking a Fibonacci level as well as a prior batch of price action swing-lows. A longer-term trend-line sitting underneath current price action (projecting to ~1.0850) is setting support.
- We then moved on to the Cable, which is in the midst of a huge day after this morning’s flip from dovishness at the BoE. The Bank of England nudged inflation expectations higher for 2017 and 2018 while removing their dovish implication for future policy moves. Should the US Dollar show strength tomorrow, this could open the door for a ‘higher low’ in GBP/USD price action. For more information behind that setup, please check out our Technical Analysis piece from earlier today on GBP entitled, Cable Flies as BoE Acknowledges Inflation.
- We then looked at USD/JPY, which has just broken through support with a quick test down to the psychological level at 102.50. This support break should urge caution on the top-side continuation move, but should support confirm tomorrow around NFP, this could be an attractive long-USD setup (but only if support is confirmed).
-We also looked at USD/CAD, which has moved sideways for much of the week while the U.S. Dollar was selling off, highlighting just how incredibly weak the Canadian Dollar has been. Should NFP give us a burst of USD-weakness tomorrow, this could open the door for an attractive bullish setup in USD/CAD.
- AUD/USD has been tricky from a directional standpoint over the last month, but a batch of resistance between.7700-.7760 is of extreme interest. Should price action face another test in this resistance zone, the possibility of bearish reversal plays could begin to get a bit more attractive.
- NZD/USD has just rallied up to a level of resistance that’s given quite a bit of pressure to the Kiwi-Dollar of recent. And while this resistance can be attractive for reversal setups, the strength with which the Kiwi has priced in this week’s USD weakness should expose the fact that traders likely don’t want to look for the reversal here unless USD-strength becomes prominent around or after NFP tomorrow.
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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