News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇲🇽 Unemployment Rate (SEP) Actual: 5.1% Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇲🇽 Unemployment Rate (SEP) Actual: 5.1% Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • 🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (16/OCT) Actual: -0.6% Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.67%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.35%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SuyI0wMhaq
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (16/OCT) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Unemployment Rate (SEP) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-21
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/yXomAftdv8 https://t.co/GNUYwiesiM
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.55% Gold: 0.60% Oil - US Crude: -1.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zeXG8lHCy0
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.81% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.72% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.64% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.29% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.23% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Au6kbo4WXL
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.08% Wall Street: -0.00% Germany 30: -0.86% France 40: -1.12% FTSE 100: -1.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/pNZcZ7hQkI
What Triggers Next Implosion: Elections, Central Banks, China?

What Triggers Next Implosion: Elections, Central Banks, China?

2016-10-18 01:35:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • In various measures of value, the markets - and particular US equities - look stretched
  • There are any number of eventual sparks that can prove contagious to global sentiment due to underlying conditions
  • Three of the most popular concerns now are election fallout, monetary policy changes and China

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

After devastating events like global financial crises, the focus - after the dust settles - to what caused the fire. In 2008 after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the driver was said to be the subprime housing crisis. After the dot-com bubble of 2000 and bust, it was the failure of certain tech companies who saw their share price go to zero or severely reduced. However, that focus on ignition provides less valuable information for traders and investors for the future. It is the circumstances and environment that setup the crisis that staged such events. Yet, that doesn't mean the spark is unimportant. It provides the crucial aspect of timing. But, there are more prominent detonation triggers than others in our currency situation.

Few would argue that the markets are currently stretched. Even bulls would have to admit that markets are riding quite high. A fundamental would inevitably land upon stretched value metrics whether through growth/earnings potential or risk-reward evaluations. That sets the stage for susceptibility to meaningful unwind. Complacency is not a particularly firm foundation for investors to hold exposure through troubling winds. This represents a fertile landscape for trouble wherever it should emerge. While the catalyst offers timing and the ability to tip the scales into a vicious cycle, it doesn't alter the ultimate depth of the deleveraging that would ultimately be suffered.

What ultimately is the crack that sinks this ship? There are many potential developments both known and unknown that could fell our markets. The best option we have in evaluating the probabilities is to keep track of those pressing themes we actual know about. I discuss general concerns that dominate market fears (US elections, Fed/ECB policy events, China) and what a trader poll reveals about the 'market's' expectations in today's Strategy Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

What Triggers Next Implosion: Elections, Central Banks, China?

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES