Talking Points:
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- In this webinar, we used price action to take a longer-term look at major macro markets in the S&P 500, Oil and the Japanese Yen.
- We started off by looking at an observation, and a potential correlation between the Chinese Yuan and the S&P 500. Over the past year and two months there have been multiple instances in which the Yuan weakened aggressively, and U.S. stock prices fell shortly thereafter. We discussed this in this morning’s Market Talk article entitled, ‘The Yuan Continues to Weaken After Becoming a ‘Reserve’ Currency.’
- We then extrapolated on that theme in the S&P 500, which has been under pressure for the past few days while the Yuan has been weakening further. The S&P 500 has broken below a rising trend-line that can be found by connecting the February 11th low to the Brexit low; but perhaps more interesting is a longer-term trend-line that originated in 2009. This trend-line currently projects to ~1,975, and as long as price action remains above this level, the bullish bias may remain. This is what we discussed in the Q4 forecast on equities in the section entitled, Picking Up Pennies in Front of the Steamroller. To get the full guide (it’s free), please click here.
- Towards the end of the webinar, we brought in the German DAX to look at as a candidate for short-equities themes. While the S&P stays well above that longer-term bullish trend-line, the DAX has been building in lower-highs; and may be more near a bearish reversal than the S&P 500.
- We then moved on to look at another long-term trend-line in Oil. Price action in Oil is still bullish in the near-term, but this projected trend-line offered a resistance inflection in June with a high of 51.64. Should this trend-line hold and should prices continue to resist, the possibility of a ‘bigger picture’ reversal in Oil prices will exist. We discussed this theme in yesterday’s Market Talk entitled, The Dangerous Nature of Headline-Driven Markets in GBP, Oil.
- After that, we looked at a long-term trend-line in USD/JPY that originates off of the high in the year 1998. The past four months of price action have seen numerous tests of support at the projection of this trend-line, and this may be opening the door for a longer-term reversal play in the Yen. In the webinar, I showed how this theme of potential Yen-weakness can be adopted against the Euro in the effort of avoiding near-term volatility in the US Dollar.
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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