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Forecast - Fed Forecast Before Blackout, BoE and Brexit

Forecast - Fed Forecast Before Blackout, BoE and Brexit

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Investors' anxiety was raised with the strong risk aversion move last week, but follow through lacked Monday
  • We will enter the critical countdown phase to the Fed's important Sep 21st FOMC meeting with key event risk on hand
  • The BoE and Brexit will offer critical fundamental guideline for the Pound this week

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

Chief Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the top Forex fundamental themes for the coming week of trading. The first concern for traders of all asset classes and approach to start of this week was the state of investor sentiment. The dramatic fall in speculative markets that leveraged fear for the weekend notably reversed course to start off the new trading period. Yet, while the direction change may have been welcome, it will be difficult to shake off the concern attached to the exceptional volatility.

From a related fundamental track, US monetary policy will be a greater obsession this week than it has been for some time. Starting with Fed Board member Brainard's dubiously-timed remarks to the run of inflation data through the end of this week, there is a range of event risk to rate watchers and Dollar traders to take into consideration for the quarterly FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Heading into the 'blackout' period in the week preceding the meeting, we will very well see pace set through the first session of the week.

The other prominent theme on the fundamental list this week is the Brexit. Data will set speculation alight to start the week, but it is an important BoE rate decision and EU summit (with no UK presence) discussing the Brexit that can truly alter the pace and course for the Sterling. Among other event risk to keep an eye on for discrete bouts of volatility are a round of Chinese data, New Zealand GDP, Australian employment and the SNB rate decision. We discussed all of this and more in the recording of the weekly webinar.

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