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Macro Markets Post-ECB

Macro Markets Post-ECB

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at some of the larger FX markets after this morning’s ECB announcement. And while this morning’s ECB announcement was a relative snoozer, there were quite a few interesting events showing up in peripheral markets like the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen.

- We put a large focus on the US Dollar given recent changes around FOMC Rate Expectations, while looking at the chain of events that brought us to present day. For over a year now, there has been growing divergence between market and FOMC expectations, with markets seemingly shrugging off these hawkish claims from the Federal Reserve. Markets appear to be expecting the Fed to look for any reason possible to avoid hiking rates, despite their hawkishness.

- As we near the September FOMC meeting, expectations for an actual hike at that meeting are practically non-existent. More interesting, however, is what the Fed’s take on the rest of the year might look like. We may end up with a revisit of last September’s ‘hawkish hold’ from the Federal Reserve which didn’t work out so well for risk markets.

- This could possibly end up leading to a longer-term bias of strength in the Greenback as the Fed is one of the few major Central Banks not actively looking to loosen policy. For USD-strength exposure, we looked at the Japanese Yen with the setup near support on USD/JPY.

- On the USD-weakness side of the coin, we looked at setups in both GBP/USD and Gold. If you’d like to read a more full-form version of the Gold setup, please check out our technical analysis article from yesterday; and if you’d like more on the setup in GBP/USD, please click here to access that technical setup.

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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