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USD Game-plan for Jackson Hole

USD Game-plan for Jackson Hole

2016-08-25 19:57:00
James Stanley, Strategist
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Talking Points:

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- In this webinar, we used price action to line-up setups across markets in anticipation of Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium tomorrow.

- While expecting any big splashes would likely be a bit brash, the recent tonality of Federal Reserve comments have been slightly-hawkish, indicating that the Fed may be looking to anchor rate expectations higher. This is quite similar to what we saw in the month of May as the Fed talked up the prospect of a hike in June; and after July’s FOMC statement saw the Fed pose another ‘less dovish’ take on markets, this could bring a recursion of that prior observation of USD-strength.

- In the event of USD-strength, we looked at the top-side of USD/JPY. This would be looking to combine a strong-Dollar with a potentially weak-Yen as policy divergence between the two representative Central Banks would become clearer should the Fed pose a hawkish stance. While the Yen hasn’t really shown much reflection of increased-stimulus bets of recent, they’re probably not very close to a rate hike anytime soon, and should the Fed move more hawkish, this would diverge considerably from the BoJ’s stance.

- On the flip-side, should USD-weakness come about, the long-side of Gold could get considerably more attractive. But given that it’s still in an overbought, longer-term state, USD-strength could open the door for entries off of deeper support values, with a particularly watchful eye on the confluent batch of Fibonacci levels in the $1,282-$1,286-range. But should USD-weakness show, we looked at various top-side resistance levels to use in order to gauge a bullish continuation-entry.

- We also looked at USD/CHF as a long-USD play. While this one may not carry the potential fireworks of a USD/JPY or a Gold setup, its adherence to recent technical structure has been exciting.

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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