News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year) https://t.co/Nome25d9Bt
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
  • There is a ridiculous number of scheduled Fed speeches on the docket next week. Powell specifically will be speaking multiple times including at an ECB hosted forum on central banking (which also has a panel with Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ heads)
  • USD Ascending Triangle, Bullish for Q4 - #DXY chart on @TradingView https://t.co/iCnRSo9N4V
  • Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's is due to give its sovereign credit rating update on Germany today ahead of weekend national elections
  • RT @BIS_org: Since the early 1990s, changes in the #MonetaryPolicy stance have affected a rather narrow set of prices – mostly in the servi…
  • Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou reached deal with the US Dept of Justice to return her to China - Dow Jones
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester says: - sees US GDP in 2022 between 3.75 and 4% - Supports tapering in November and concluding over the first half of 2022 - After liftoff, accommodative policy needed for some time
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn't comment on the growth forecast or monetary policy in his introductory remarks
  • Kansas City Fed President Esther George says: - The labor market friction is fading barring a resurgence of virus - A 'normal' economy is likely to remain elusive for some time - Asset buying effects complicate the judging rate change plan
Post-CPI Price Action in USD

Post-CPI Price Action in USD

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

- This is an archived webinar of a previous session based around the topic of Price Action. Today’s webinar centered the discussion around the U.S. Dollar after this morning’s U.S. CPI print.

- While this morning’s CPI print was roughly in-line with market expectations, it was something else happening around that time that may have contributed to additional strength in the U.S. Dollar, and that was commentary from New York Fed President William Dudley that said markets are underpricing the probability of a move at the bank’s next meeting in September.

- This is very similar to what happened after the April FOMC meeting when, much like July, the bank posed a ‘less hawkish’ statement to markets with a rather muted response. But in the days following the April Fed meeting, multiple Fed members talking up the prospect of 2-3 hikes in the remainder of the year helped to bring the Dollar higher through much of May.

- These hopes for higher rates or even a more hawkish Fed were seemingly vanquished after the NFP report released on June 3rd massively disappointed expectations. This brought on USD bearishness again, and that lasted until the Brexit referendum.

- At the most recent FOMC meeting, the bank again made a slightly less-dovish statement, saying ‘near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.’ But this failed to bring strength into the US Dollar, and expectations for a rate hike in September continue to remain subdued.

- The big question at this point is whether the release of the July meeting minutes tomorrow will reflect Mr. Dudley’s sentiment across the Fed, with expectations for a potential hike by the end of the year, perhaps as soon as September. If this takes place, we may be in for a redux of May’s price action that saw USD strengthen throughout much of the month.

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES