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Forecast - Volatility Versus Trend for Dollar, Pound, Yen and Aussie

Forecast - Volatility Versus Trend for Dollar, Pound, Yen and Aussie

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • 'Quiet' was the best descriptor for the market this past week and will likely be again this week
  • High-profile and wide-reaching event risk is in short supply this week which will likely keep trends elusive
  • Event risk should be monitored for volatility impact on the Dollar, Pound, Euro and Aussie Dollars

Chief Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the top Forex fundamental themes for the coming week of trading. The markets were extremely quiet this past week, and that lethargy will likely carry through to the current period. Sentiment is leaning higher, but a lack of conviction undermines momentum each step of the way. Sentiment is one of the key fundamental motivators behind the financial system, but commitment to extending the reach for yield is proving difficult against the growth sense of skepticism and appreciation of limited returns. A high profile fundamental flashpoint is necessary to shift the underlying assumptions of risk positioning, but there are items scheduled that can tout that degree of influence.

Event risk this week is instead more likely to spur volatility than redefine the landscape for global investors. To start the week, the Japanese GDP release both reaffirmed the need for more support from the BoJ and Japanese government via further accommodation; but it also reminded of their limited capacity to gain serious traction in a world already flooded with stimulus. The Dollar ahead has one the most fundamentally loaded weeks ahead with a focuson monetary policy speculation. US CPI statistics, the FOMC minutes and Fed speeches will shape the headlines. Meanwhile, the Pound traders will continue to count the post-Brexit tab with data like July employment and inflation numbers. As for Australian employment and some other statistics, there is still potential for volatility, but the jolt will likely be even more limited in reach and duration. The top fundamental themes and event risk this week were discussed in the recording of this weekly webinar.

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