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What Will It Take to Revive FX Volatility?

What Will It Take to Revive FX Volatility?

2016-08-15 06:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • FOMC meeting minutes, Fed-speak may boost FX market volatility
  • Australian Dollar may decline on RBA interest rate cut speculation
  • UK CPI, New Zealand jobs data unlikely see strong price response

What do retail traders’ buying and selling decisions say about FX price trends? Find out here!

FX market volatility has plunged since the Brexit referendum in late July. Indeed, a gauge of one-month implied volatility readings baked into G10 currency options set its year-to-date low last week. Choppy trade appears to reflect stand-still in Fed rate hike speculation as traders weigh up the disconnect between a well-supported US economy and the lingering threat of risk aversion. Minutes from July's FOMC meeting coupled with scheduled commentary from several key Fed officials may begin to break the deadlock and revive speculation in the days ahead.

The Australian Dollar may face selling pressure if a dovish tone emerges in the text of minutes from Augusts' policy meeting. A downtick in wage inflation and a disappointing jobs report may drive downside follow-through. Meanwhile, the Kiwi Dollar and the British Pound may not find lasting catalysts in New Zealand employment and UK CPI data, respectively. The outcomes are likely to have only limited implications for near-term RBNZ and BOE policy expectations, undercutting their market-moving potential.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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