News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • ETH/BTC spread back to levels last seen in August 2018... https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/22/Bitcoin-BTCUSD-Slide-Resumes-Ethereum-ETHUSD-Continues-to-Outperform.html
  • ECB Sources: ECB Hawks did not repeat calls for PEPP tapering at short, calm policy meeting on Thursday. #ECB $EUR
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.10% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.44% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.61% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.69% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/8weSC1Z8kF
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.87% Germany 30: 0.80% FTSE 100: 0.35% US 500: -0.08% Wall Street: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/d68HbWLIrn
  • The US Dollar is attempting to move higher again today. The $DXY has risen from a morning low around 91.00 to currently trade around 91.35. The index tested the 91.40 level yesterday before meeting resistance and dropping lower. $USD https://t.co/JwsszQpv8J
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.31% Gold: -0.43% Silver: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/gNyBVpEfPh
  • 🇺🇸 CB Leading Index MoM (MAR) Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-22
  • Please join us at 11:00 EST/15:00 GMT for a webinar where you can learn how to identify price trends with trader sentiment. Register here: https://t.co/qguzXYUjTo https://t.co/Jw6GVisPdx
  • 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) Actual: -3.7% Expected: 0.8% Previous: -6.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-22
  • 💶 Consumer Confidence Flash (APR) Actual: -8.1 Expected: -10.8 Previous: -10.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-22
What the BoJ, ECB and Major Central Banks Do to Rest of the World

What the BoJ, ECB and Major Central Banks Do to Rest of the World

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The world's largest central banks are near, at or even below the zero threshold on their benchmark rates
  • Policy groups for the world's major, developing (emerging market) economies are comparably in disarray
  • Extremes in monetary policy is promoting more instability than growth, and smaller economies bear the brunt of it

See the DailyFX Analysts' 3Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The world's largest central banks are hosting unprecedented accommodative monetary policy programs - though the aim and success of their efforts are coming under greater scrutiny. With rates near or below zero and quantitative easing programs a common effort, collective policy is pushing extremes with a tangible decline in effectiveness and rise in associated risk. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and European Central Banks (ECB) have stood as the most recent milestones of this diminishing influence. There has been little of the inflation or growth these groups target with the most recent rounds of QE and rates cuts, while their respective currencies have actually appreciated. In the meantime, economic trade partners and financial peers continue to absorb the detrimental side effects.

Looking at the major central banks' benchmark rates, there has been a universal slide in rates that reflects an effort to initially fight the crushing effects of the Great Financial Crisis. Through 2013, the fundamental and financial evidence for successively larger efforts was on offer. Yet, in the past three years, the unintended side effects started to outweigh the targeted virtuous objectives. Throughout, the period however, Emerging Market and smaller trade-oriented countries had to scramble to balance the international force with their own economic issues. In contrast to the uniform drop in developed world rates, emerging market rates have diverged dramatically between inflation issues, economic struggle a need to curb volatile foreign capital flows.

Beyond the contrast between two major players (say Fed and ECB), there is a more dramatic contrast between the developed and emerging market central banks. And, in this widening gulf, speculative necessity is pushing deeper and deeper into extreme risk. We will continue to see this troubling spillover effect, and there are two milestones later this week. The South Korean central bank is scheduled to determine its next move in the shadow of the BoJ after their most recent push to extreme easing that is perceived to offer Japan an unfair trade advantage. For the Mexican central bank, an interest in curbing the Peso's slide seems to be evolving out of a steadying of risk trends, but it wasn't long ago (February) where the group hiked rates 50bps and intervened in the FX market. As fears of ineffective and distorting monetary policy start to percolate to mainstream financial headlines, this is the big picture to keep. We discuss this in today's Strategy Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES