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Forecast - Recharged Risk Trends, A Rise in Global Stimulus

Forecast - Recharged Risk Trends, A Rise in Global Stimulus

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • A new round of stimulus from the UK and Japan along with a strong US jobs report suggested risk appetite had fuel
  • Fundamental drive looks to significantly abate this week with the next round of key scheduled events in September
  • Top event risk this week is the RBNZ rate decision Wednesday, but emerging market meetings should be watched

Harness the power of big data to evaluate millions of historical price points to calculate the probabilities of short-term market moves using the GSI Indicator.

Chief Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the top Forex fundamental themes for the coming week of trading. Risk appetite and monetary policy were once again mingling for influence over the global financial markets this past week. However, as has become increasingly clear over the past months, there seems to be limited engagement in the speculative appetite backed by the increasingly desperate actions of the world's largest central banks. Risk appetite wouldn't start the new week on strong footing; and scheduled event risk ahead offers limited scope to charge another push on the same fundamental backdrop.

While the key fundamental themes - risk appetite and monetary policy - find themselves stretched for influence, the docket looks to lower the number and intensity of discrete updates. Top event risk on the docket is Wednesday's RBNZ rate decision which comes loaded with a 99 percent probability of a 25bp cut according to overnight swaps. Friday is another concentrated day with the US University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey; Chinese data (retail sales, industrial production); Hong Kong GDP; Brexit-oriented UK construction; and Euro-area GDP figures (details for Germany and Eurozone, while Greece and Portugal see their first update). The top fundamental drivers were discussed in this recording of the Monday webinar.

See the schedule for the weekly fundamental webinar in the DailyFX calendar of events.

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