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Webinar: Fed Holds Rates, Feeds Debate Over a 2016 Hike

Webinar: Fed Holds Rates, Feeds Debate Over a 2016 Hike

2016-08-02 03:39:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Fed holds its benchmark range at 0.25 to 0.50 percent while its statement keeps speculative language
  • While concern over global risks remained, the Fed stated near-term threats to the economic outlook had eased
  • The market sees essentially a 50-50 chance of a Fed hike in 2016, leaving plenty of risk moving forward

Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

Chief Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the top Forex fundamental themes for the coming week of trading. While there was a wide range of event risk sprinkled throughout the past week, it was clear where the engine of volatility was turning: in monetary policy speculation. The market's heavy speculation over the BoJ meeting tapped a nerve that sent a shudder through the Japanese Yen while the more direct US GDP outshone the FOMC rate decision. It is clear that the market is finding considerable motivation through monetary policy - whether for the appetite of yield or expectation of financial instability.

With that focus in mind this week, the docket items that pose the greatest threat to quiet are set in deep relief. At the top of the list is the BoE rate decision and accompanying Quarterly Inflation report. The central bank deferred a proactive response to the Brexit last month. If they further push it back - in the face of heavy speculation - the economic assessment of the UK may improve quickly and the Pound rebound in kind. Perhaps just as black-and-white in nature will be the US NFPs. While employment is not the missing ingredient to the Fed's puzzle, it is a market favorite. Aside from these two high profile events, the RBA rate decision, BoJ fallout and general risk trends will contribute to big fundamental movement this week. We discussed these important fundamental themes and more in this week's webinar.

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