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Fundamental Forecast - ECB Decision, Brexit Fallout, Risk Trends

Fundamental Forecast - ECB Decision, Brexit Fallout, Risk Trends

2016-07-19 03:16:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Risk trends continue to build a gaping divergence between conviction and need
  • Brexit is far from resolved as a market mover with UK housing, inflation and jobs data this week
  • Top event risk will be the ECB rate decision, but there are plenty of events for Europe this week

What are the Traits of Successful Traders?

Chief Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the top Forex fundamental themes for the coming week of trading. The failed attempt at a coup by a faction of the Turkish military this weekend tested the mettle of risk trends, and the substructure showed how unstable conditions really are. The reach for risk persisted to start off the new week, but the optimism of the S&P 500 stretch to record high does not draw the crowds of bullish acolytes that it had in past years. We may have to wait until next week's very high profile catalysts (FOMC, BoJ, US GDP), but this crucial foundation remains tenuous. Meanwhile, there there are driving fundamental winds that will be directed by event risk this week. In particular the Euro's long-term stability amid monetary policy and the unexplored fallout from Brexit will find further clarity this week. We discussed these important fundamental themes and more in this week's webinar.

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