Talking Points:
- Shock-wary Pound traders should keep a close eye on Tuesday's BoE Financial Stability Report
- US NFPs, Eurozone investor sentiment, Chinese reserve and the RBA decision represent other key event risk
- Keep the big picture condition of risk trends in view as speculative appetite is stretched
See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.
While we may find some reprieve from the recent, extreme volatility with an extended holiday weekend; it is unlikely that the quiet will last. Key fundamental themes are beginning to stir with recent developments, and scheduled event risk will subsequently adopt greater influence in a market sensitive to shocks. That will likely find a quick rebound in activity after the US 4th of July liquidity drain passes.
For scheduled event risk in the weak ahead, the docket will hit all of the majors. Arguably most at-risk systemically, the Euro's stability post-Brexit will be weighed by local investors with the Sentix sentiment survey. The bookend to the period will be the ever-infamous US NFPs on Friday. Rate speculation has generated friction for the Dollar, but the implications for general sentiment may prove more profound. With the Brexit far from resolved after the vote, Pound traders will absorb the BoE's Financial Stability Report and Governor Carney's assessment on Tuesday.
There is plenty of high-profile event risk spread out through the week, but it is the larger themes that we should be more mindful of moving forward. Even the bulls in the markets are acknowledging the distorted conditions and troubling monetary policy reliance that they have to fall back on to support their exposure. With the S&P 500 once again within view of record highs and volatility measures squeezed for short-term speculative juice, progress from here requires conviction - which has been in short supply. We discuss the currents and events through the week ahead in this weekend Trading Video.
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