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Video: The Euro's Underpriced and Serious Brexit Risk Exposure

Video: The Euro's Underpriced and Serious Brexit Risk Exposure

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • A laundry list of global policymakers have come out warning about the troubling repercussions of a Brexit
  • There is no entity or currency at greater systemic risk from the Brexit vote than the Eurozone and Euro
  • The EU Referendum in the UK is scheduled to begin Thursday June 23rd

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

The influence of the upcoming Brexit vote will carry far further than just the boarders of the United Kingdom's economic and financial system. Many policy groups from around the world have voiced concern over the spillover risks posed to their own countries and systems, but few have more to fear from the event than the Eurozone. The possibility of a split between the UK and European Union does not just lead to a complex chain of risks for the former. Europe will be just as exposed to this event - and in some ways, the existential threat is even greater.

Over the past years of economic struggle, austerity, diminishing yield and rise of competitive monetary policy - a polite term for cold 'currency wars' maneuvering - a substantial swell of anti-EU sentiment has arisen. One of the important binds keeping the economic and financial binds in place is fear of the unknown should a country attempt to leave. If the UK electorate decided to leave, it would leave a dangerous wound in European stability. And, there are few better positioned Union members to exit and find stability not long after. That would very likely give a false sense of confidence to a economically at-risk and systemically-important member to pursue a similar path.

While the European Union and Eurozone represent different groups, the appeal of following the UK in escaping the influence the Unions will be even stronger for the European Monetary Union - the membership to the common currency. Greece's drawn out debt crisis and recession, Spain's strong anti-EU party rise and Italy's exceptional debt load are just a few countries that have stronger catalysts. If such an exit seemed likely, the stability of the Euro threatens to undermine one of the largest collective economies of the world and the second most prolific reserve currency. We discuss the depth of risk the Brexit represents to the Euro and how much of the threat is already accounted for by the market in today's Strategy Video.

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