We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Dialing back, the low last month was created around a very, very long-term trend-line extending up since 1982. Get your #DAX market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/Vaf1KXghqe https://t.co/TUwVPvuQkw
  • Trump: Can do phase 4 stimulus bill "later", sees understanding with Democrats on loan program funding. Calling on Congress to pass loan program funding this week -BBG
  • US President Donald Trump: Could reopen country in phases, may be ahead of schedule. Have to be on downside of slope to reopen the economy -BBG
  • USD/CAD Trading Forecast - via @DailyFX: Canadian Dollar Eyes Jobs Data, Oil & OPEC+ Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usd-cad/2020/04/08/usdcad-forecast-canadian-dollar-eyes-jobs-data-oil-opec.html $USDCAD $CL_F #WTI #OOTT #Forex #FX https://t.co/mSrFIcdSs9
  • Fed's Kaplan: -Sees US unemployment rate rising above 10% to 'mid teens' but fall between 7-8% by year end -US GDP may plunge 25-35% in 2Q, shrink 4-5% on balance this year
  • RT @LiveSquawk: Fed's Kaplan: US GDP May Shrink 25% To 35% In Second Quarter, Then Grow In Second Half - RTRS - Sees US GDP Shrinking 4% T…
  • For Thursday's trading session we have: the RBA Financial Stability Review; UK GDP; Canadian employment; US consumer confidence (UMich for April) and the OPEC+ meeting. High profile event risk overriding liquidity fade into Good Friday?
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0647 S2: 1.0762 S1: 1.0827 R1: 1.0941 R2: 1.0991 R3: 1.1106 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • #Gold prices rallied by more than 7.7% from the April 1st low into yesterday’s. high. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/M9QeP4a5QH https://t.co/xc847ElRxe
  • RT @hmeisler: RUT green 3 straight. Hasn't gone 4 since early Feb.
Video: The Euro's Underpriced and Serious Brexit Risk Exposure

Video: The Euro's Underpriced and Serious Brexit Risk Exposure

2016-06-17 01:02:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • A laundry list of global policymakers have come out warning about the troubling repercussions of a Brexit
  • There is no entity or currency at greater systemic risk from the Brexit vote than the Eurozone and Euro
  • The EU Referendum in the UK is scheduled to begin Thursday June 23rd

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.

The influence of the upcoming Brexit vote will carry far further than just the boarders of the United Kingdom's economic and financial system. Many policy groups from around the world have voiced concern over the spillover risks posed to their own countries and systems, but few have more to fear from the event than the Eurozone. The possibility of a split between the UK and European Union does not just lead to a complex chain of risks for the former. Europe will be just as exposed to this event - and in some ways, the existential threat is even greater.

Over the past years of economic struggle, austerity, diminishing yield and rise of competitive monetary policy - a polite term for cold 'currency wars' maneuvering - a substantial swell of anti-EU sentiment has arisen. One of the important binds keeping the economic and financial binds in place is fear of the unknown should a country attempt to leave. If the UK electorate decided to leave, it would leave a dangerous wound in European stability. And, there are few better positioned Union members to exit and find stability not long after. That would very likely give a false sense of confidence to a economically at-risk and systemically-important member to pursue a similar path.

While the European Union and Eurozone represent different groups, the appeal of following the UK in escaping the influence the Unions will be even stronger for the European Monetary Union - the membership to the common currency. Greece's drawn out debt crisis and recession, Spain's strong anti-EU party rise and Italy's exceptional debt load are just a few countries that have stronger catalysts. If such an exit seemed likely, the stability of the Euro threatens to undermine one of the largest collective economies of the world and the second most prolific reserve currency. We discuss the depth of risk the Brexit represents to the Euro and how much of the threat is already accounted for by the market in today's Strategy Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.