News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/Gps2Xp32h9
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/hftCEho1lM
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/MzaIl7tPmZ
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/rFlQtyQS81
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/BPHuKecwnz https://t.co/73OmuCKfU9
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/KzhQnGiLyt
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cuneuJNZlH
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here: https://t.co/d8Re5anlG5 https://t.co/danCiP5vqK
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/JhYoQ7I19K
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/BEYupi32qB https://t.co/PWeXE8tZVY
Video: What to Expect from the FOMC And Dollar, SPX Reaction

Video: What to Expect from the FOMC And Dollar, SPX Reaction

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Though nothing is impossible, the FOMC is very likely to meet market expectations and hold Wednesday
  • Speculation of the central bank's future path will certainly drive markets with only a 16% chance for July
  • The Dollar may benefit from both a scenario where the Fed keeps July open or even if it writes off hikes altogether

See how retail traders are positioning in the Dollar-based majors ahead of the Fed decision using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Alongside fears surrounding the Brexit and the threat of a slide in general risk trends, FOMC speculation is a key fundamental theme for the entire financial system. The rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, and the market seems quite certain of the outcome. Swaps are only allowing a 2 percent chance that the group will hike rates. Given the surprise and thereby volatility that would result from a hike, it is very likely that central bank heeds the threat and capitulates. However, that doesn't absolve the event of volatility...far from it.

As has been the case throughout 2016, the focus of this upcoming rate decision will be on the probability and timing of policy bearings moving forward. And, the June meeting will be particularly illuminating on that front as it is one of the 'quarterly' meetings with updated forecasts and it comes at a critical juncture given their previous expectations. As of the March update to forecasts on rate projections for the year, the central bank set the outlook to 50bps or two standard hikes. Holding steady this month with little force behind a July option could force the Fed into a position where the market prevents meeting those expectations.

The Dollar's reaction to the FOMC meeting has multiple facets. On the surface, a hawkish outcome that provides for a higher July hike probability can rally the Dollar. Alternatively, a dovish outcome would no doubt eat into yield premium founded since the May turn at the very least. Yet, speculation from the market makes this event much more dynamic. Perhaps the most important side effect of this event is its implications for risk appetite. Aggressive dovish policy from the ECB and BoJ have publicly failed to generate meaningful lift in sentiment and thereby speculative assets. Would a Fed delay do any better, or would the concerns that hamper the Fed's normalization translate into general risk aversion? Genuine fear has driven strong bulls tides many times through modern history. We discuss this important events, scenarios, repercussions and tradability in today's Strategy Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES