We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #Euro has dropped through support guiding it higher from late-March lows, suggesting that the end of a corrective rebound has given way to downtrend resumption. Get your $EURUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/gpKowYNmGi https://t.co/CY7RuZf91s
  • What are a few of the common trading mistakes made by traders? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/Q3sPmP2rya #tradingstyle https://t.co/ayjehPGEeT
  • $USDCAD came close to taking out the 17-year-high just a few weeks ago, but this was followed by an aggressive pullback down below the 1.4000 handle.Get your USD/CAD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/aWmL2rlWzG https://t.co/cauVFdBxsd
  • Follow up: S&P affirms 🇩🇪Germany's AAA/A-1+ rating, outlook stable (BBG). As for PMI data, it painted a darker picture⬇️ Final print for services: 31.7, preliminary: 34.5 Final print for composite: 35.0, preliminary: 37.2 https://t.co/x2SESwo0zr
  • RT @NorthmanTrader: You need to click to expand to see this chart via @byHeatherLong https://t.co/tXd4T45FqS
  • #Dow Jones: The blue-chip index lags the S&P 500 and #Nasdaq 100 as Boeing continues to weigh on the Industrial Average. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Z495djPG07 https://t.co/3rTF8I3KBg
  • $USDMXN: A breakout above 25.44 will get it to a new highs. Get your USD/MXN market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/KFRLmtBZsv https://t.co/Lo3bvThH0w
  • #Gold closed above the 50-day average providing a bullish signal. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @malkudsi here:https://t.co/h3yVqIxwVc $gld https://t.co/0xqiCWFaml
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.43% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.48% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -1.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ST3oKR8Kyt
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.81% Gold: 0.37% Silver: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tCzfLiJU9V
Buckle Up: FOMC and Brexit A Few Threats Amid Deepening Risk

Buckle Up: FOMC and Brexit A Few Threats Amid Deepening Risk

2016-06-10 22:58:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • While favored volatility readings (like VIX) may suggest quiet, risk is exceptional and easy to catalyze
  • The Brexit vote is less than two weeks out, and a poll triggered a sharp selloff in Pound despite liquidity
  • Top event risk ahead includes: FOMC Decision; China lending; BoJ, SNB, BoE; Draghi commentary; inflation data

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. Harness the power of big data to evaluate millions of historical price points to calculate the probabilities of short-term market moves using the GSI Indicator.

There are plenty of headlines drawing our attention heading into the trading week - including the FOMC decision and Brexit speculation - but it is the underlying market conditions that present the greatest risk. Heading into the close of this past week, a sharp and broad drop in risk appetite across those assets that follow sentiment winds belied the assumptions of quiet that misleading metrics like volatility indexes suggest. These are conditions that warrant exceptional caution and a 'tactical' mentality that focuses on short-term positioning, tighter risk control and closer vigilance.

For event risk moving forward, the FOMC rate decision will likely attract the most headlines - though Brexit will give it a run for its money. A hold on the benchmark range at its current 0.25 to 0.50 percent perch is highly likely. The market sees it as such (98 percent according to Fed Funds futures), but it is a low tail risk as well considering the ramifications of shocking the market in current conditions and the central bank's awareness of its position. Instead, the focus will be placed on the chances of a July hike and keeping to the 50bps-in-2016 commitment set in March. This will weigh as much on risk trends as the Dollar.

If there were any doubt that anticipation in the Brexit could trigger strong swells in the Pound crosses, we dispelled them this past Friday. A late-in-day release of the Indepent/ORB poll showed 55 percent support for the 'Leave' camp and 45 percent for 'Remain'. That is the largest skew for an exit to date and the Sterling responded in kind. GBP/USD crashed through its 100-day moving average. Don't presume this is a clear trend however. Trend is difficult to fuel in these conditions but volatility easy - from Pound to Yen to S&P 500 to oil. We discuss our increasingly risky markets in this weekend Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.