News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The gold price rebound keeps XAU/USD within the confines of the August downtrend. From a trading standpoint. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/gHAtO2jcrp
  • Gold recovered from a steep sell-off this morning to finish the day just lightly lower $XAU $USD https://t.co/lkcyL8gts9
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.25% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.55% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.64% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.75% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/UVTYrLMwRS
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.54% Gold: -0.87% Silver: -1.82% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/3BoduI6beG
  • Earnings season is underway and key tech leaders are set to report next week. Get your #Dowjones market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/vAesS48lgG https://t.co/es8tChHx3y
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 66.20%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/cFre7YkQsc
  • The heaviest concentration for potential market volatility in scheduled events next week seems to me to be Tuesday-Wednesday: https://t.co/DyDASx24zL
  • EUR/USD slightly stronger, still trading below ECB's "key" 1.22 level $EUR $USD https://t.co/M7vGf4BWQI
  • Next week's economic docket includes (among many things): 4Q US and European GDP figures; the FOMC rate decision and the IMF's 2021 world economic outlook. But given this market, would be surprised if Tesla earnings (Wed after the close) didn't rouse the most attention/impact
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.12% FTSE 100: 0.08% France 40: 0.08% Wall Street: 0.00% US 500: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hRkA9W16rB
USD/JPY Shows Which Is Stronger - Risk Trends or Monetary Policy

USD/JPY Shows Which Is Stronger - Risk Trends or Monetary Policy

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Risk trends and relative monetary policy are two of the most prominent and productive fundamental drivers
  • The S&P 500 has guided a broad range of risk assets higher, but conviction has drawn skepticism
  • Monetary policy is rebalancing rather than driving to new extremes

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

There are two dominant themes in the FX market that trade influence depending on their fundamental activity: speculative appetite and relative monetary policy. We can look across the market at various assets and see how they are moving relative to each other as well as the fundamental catalysts that they respond most readily to in order to gauge the balance of power. Then again, we can just look to the USD/JPY. The pair is at the intersection of both fundamental themes, and its recent significant divergence from the S&P 500's march towards record highs speaks volumes of conviction.

When we look at the risk side of the market, there is certainly a broad push higher for the yield-oriented markets. Equities, emerging markets and commodities are just a few of the major asset classes that have risen in tandem; but momentum has tangibly lacked through the move. This is particularly true of the US equity benchmark where the proximity of record highs hasn't hastened bulls efforts to drive higher. The breadth without depth view of the sentiment push casts doubt.

As the USD/JPY - and other Yen crosses - head lower against the carry flow, we see the focus on monetary policy generating more traction. The weak Dollar is a factor given the downgraded rate forecasts heading into the June FOMC decision next week; but there that doesn't account for the general trend for all the Yen crosses. A rise in the Yen as doubt over the BoJ's ability to drive its currency down isn't an active driver - rather it's a passive recovery of premium. We are at an impasse. Conviction needs to arise for either sentiment or policy views. We discuss USD/JPY's position as a unique fundamental measure and its bearings in today's Strategy Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES