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Webinar: USD Ready to Fly or Die - NFP Price Action Setups

Webinar: USD Ready to Fly or Die - NFP Price Action Setups

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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Talking Points:

- This is an archive of today’s price action webinar hosted in the Live Trading Room of DailyFX.

- If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. And if you want something more short-term in nature, check out our SSI indicator.

- Tomorrow brings the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report out of the U.S. at 8:30 AM ET, and as usual the potential for volatility is extremely elevated. Please address risk management before considering trading in such an environment if you’re unfamiliar with such market conditions.

- We started off by looking at the interesting technical setup in the US Dollar after the currency spent most of May rallying after a tumultuous down-trend in the three months prior. One of the key motivators of that recent rally was bullish commentary from Fed members that gave the appearance of higher probabilities of a rate hike in June or July. Tomorrow brings us the final NFP report before that June FOMC decision begins in two weeks.

- USD is holding higher-low support, but recent price action has been tip-toeing deeper and deeper into the nearby support zone around the Fibonacci level at 11,960, forming a bull flag formation.

- EUR/USD is showing bearish price action with resistance at the 1.1212 Fibonacci retracement level. For a deeper illustration of that setup, please check out our article, USD Moves to Support Ahead of Heavy Data.

- GBP/USD put in an aggressive reversal on the back of a recent batch of Brexit poll results. A recent bout of support may be showing top-side continuation potential. The big level to watch in the pair is the confluent Fibonacci zone around 1.4371, as we outlined in our most recent GBP/USD Technical Article, Brexit Fears Pummel the Pound.

- USD/CAD appears to be regaining its bullish footing as we’ve seen a series of higher-highs and higher-lows mesh well with a series of Fibonacci support/resistance values. We outlined the setup in USD/CAD two weeks ago, and the same technical levels still apply.

- AUD/USD is a pair that we’ve mentioned a couple times over the past week as the confluent Fibonacci zone of support from .7183-.7203 has capped the declines in the pair. As we mentioned earlier in the week, a potential resistance zone in the .7300 area could be attractive for resumption plays; but this already took place throughout this week. As we near NFP, this may actually be a reversal candidate considering proximity to well-tested support.

- We also discussed USD/JPY, as it looks increasingly likely that the down-trend may be coming back in the pair. Yen strength has been all the rage since Shinzo Abe cancelled the planned tax hike for Japan yesterday, and despite the fact that he said a ‘comprehensive, bold economic stimulus package’ was coming this fall, investors have continued to sell out of the Nikkei as the Yen has continued to strengthen. The level of 109.10 is interesting as potential resistance. We had outlined this setup a couple of weeks ago in the article, EUR/USD, USD/JPY: Which Will Break First.

--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.