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NFPs with EUR/USD at Major Turning Point, SPX Eyeing Record Highs

NFPs with EUR/USD at Major Turning Point, SPX Eyeing Record Highs

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The monthly US NFPs report is a well known - and perhaps thereby habitually-supported - market mover
  • A growing interest in the probability of a Summer Fed hike is likely to shape the lens the jobs data is read through
  • It will be difficult to shape an outcome from the statics that can genuinely lift risk trends and forge a SPX rally

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Volatility is picking up for the FX market with sharp moves developing for many of the majors. However, follow through has long been the issue. The Australian Dollar's rally following the strong Aussie 1Q GDP reading stalled and retraced much of its gains before the session closed. Meanwhile, the Pound's tumble following the Brexit polls flip extended to a second, hefty day. Is there more to these moves? Will the Euro and Dollar join the fray - which would realistically offer a more permanent charge - with the ECB rate decision and NFPs ahead?

The fundamental fuel leveraging activity so far doesn't inherently carry the depth that would confidently secure follow through. Volatility can be self-sustaining under certain circumstances, but the prevalence of major technical boundaries and conflicted views of what is or can drive the market is more likely to trip up trend development. Yet, feeding a dominant theme can change our landscape. Relative monetary policy will be stoked with the Eurozone rate decision and US labor report due Thursday and Friday respectively. For the ECB, no change is expected though; and building on the thaw in Fed skepticism is progressively more difficult to accomplish.

Tactical market approach is still most appropriate for current conditions. That means giving heavier attribution to technicals and evaluating fundamentals as event risk for volatility. That said, it is important to keep a watchful eye on the more systemic currents - particularly risk trends. The four-month rebound in speculative appetite is increasingly skewed in its risk-reward balance. We evaluate tactical versus trend views on key pairs and markets in today's Trading Video.

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