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Will US Jobs Data Cement June Fed Rate Hike Chances?

Will US Jobs Data Cement June Fed Rate Hike Chances?

2016-05-30 06:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar looks to jobs report to bolster June rate hike chances
  • Euro unlikely to find strong lead in ECB monetary policy meeting
  • Aussie at risk if 1Q GDP, China PMI data boost RBA rate cut bets

Retail traders' positioning offers clues about price trends. Find out how!

The US Dollar will face a critical test of its new-found strength in the week ahead as pivotal economic data crosses the wires. The Fed's favored PCE inflation gauge and May's employment report will be looked upon for confirmation of policymakers' hawkish rhetoric in recent weeks. Upside surprises in line with recent outperformance on US news-flow relative to consensus forecasts may help cement the likelihood of a June rate hike in the minds of investors.

The Euro is unlikely to find strong direction cues in flash CPI data as well as the ECB monetary policy announcement. The central bank seems locked in wait-and-see mode until all of the various elements of its ambitious easing effort have been engaged and given an opportunity to impact markets. Meanwhile, a string of disappointments on Australian economic data outcomes over recent weeks may foreshadow a similar outcome on first-quarter GDP figures, bolstering RBA rate cut speculation and pushign the Aussie Dollar downward. Soft Chinese CPI readings cold amplify this dynamic.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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