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Video: A Fed Hike, Brexit Vote and Oil May Not Allow a Quiet June

Video: A Fed Hike, Brexit Vote and Oil May Not Allow a Quiet June

2016-05-27 23:41:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Historically, June is a quiet month for the markets with SPX showing both small moves and low volume
  • Volatility measures across the asset classes have settled these past weeks and complacency is setting back in
  • However, the preponderance of looming event risk - like the Fed, Brexit and oil's climb - are likely to spur action

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

June is historically seen as one of the quietest months for activity in the markets. Yet, the abundance of unresolved event risk that we face moving forward is unlikely to see this new month pass so peacefully. Complacency is a familiar habit in the financial system in the years following the Great Financial Crisis. However, the consciousness of growing instability is increasingly apparent.

A seasonal lull paired with naturally sanguine markets may seem the perfect combination to walk away, but the laundry list of systemic risks the market faces makes these conditions riskier rather than safer. Among the high-profile events that we are unlikely to escape for volatility - and can very well catalyze global reactions - are the OPEC meeting this week as a spark for ever-critical oil prices; the heavily-debated June 15 FOMC rate decision that threatens to sheer coordinated monetary policy efforts; and the the June 23 Brexit vote that could upend an important economic stalwart (the EU).

These are only the high profile events with specific dates. There is much more that skulks just beneath the placid surface. We discuss what June may look like for traders in today's Strategy Video.

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