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Dollar's Technical Bearing Sets Stage for EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD

Dollar's Technical Bearing Sets Stage for EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD

2016-05-26 02:13:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • The USDollar's technical picture looks finally balanced between abrupt continuation or imminent reversal
  • Guidance from the index can offer motivation not obvious on some USD-based majors
  • Most of the Dollar pairs have key levels - support or resistance - immediately ahead and a need for motivation

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

The USDollar index has seen a significant technical transition. What started out as a momentous rally three weeks ago on revived conviction of near-term Fed hikes is now one of the most placid periods the currency has seen in four months. Is this a progressive shift in conviction or simply respite before the bulls revive their run? We take a look at the fundamental considerations, but the emphasis is on the technical boundaries.

With this view of the single currency, we can put into better context a number of key developments for the 'majors'. We have remarkably consistent USD trends similar to what we have seen in the Index from the likes of EUR/USD and AUD/USD. In contrast, there are pairs that are showing little of that same unadulterated momentum such as NZD/USD and USD/JPY.

Further, there are pairs that are facing critical Dollar resistance that can align to the USDollar move as with EUR/USD. In contrast, if the Greenback were to reverse, it would put the likes of GBP/USD in a position for a critical break above its 200-day moving average. We focus on the Dollar with a particular concentration on the currency's and crosses' technicals in today's Strategy Video.

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