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  • Federal Reserve balance sheet reached new high of $7.1 trillion last week, up from $4.1 trillion a year ago - BBG
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Fundamental Forecast - Risk Trend and Dollar Give Way to the G-7

Fundamental Forecast - Risk Trend and Dollar Give Way to the G-7

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • A key Dollar break after a two-week rally puts the pressure on US CPI and key fundamental themes
  • Risk trends have lost traction once again just before key levels are put to the test
  • The G-7 meeting is top event risk this week; but scheduled event risk for USD, GBP, JPY and AUD should be watched

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Chief Strategist John Kicklighter discusses the top Forex fundamental themes for the coming week of trading. Both themes and individual currencies have struggled to maintain momentum through to crucial breaks and the development of prevailing trends. This is a market of skepticism and that is true for both bulls and bears, hawks and doves. Two key fundamental currents that seemed to crest into the close of this past week (divergent monetary policy and risk trends) seemed to break just at the point of reaching critical mass. Both the Dollar and S&P 500 failed to carry their respective fundamental backdrop. That said, the high-profile themes of investor sentiment, relative monetary policy and the overall distortional influence of stimulus on the financial system will be stirred towards the end of the week with the high profile G-7 meeting. What will be their focus and what are traders looking for? We discussed that in this week's fundamental webinar.

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