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Strategy Video: What's Driving USD/JPY and the Yen Crosses?

Strategy Video: What's Driving USD/JPY and the Yen Crosses?

2016-05-11 02:08:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY extended one of its biggest two-day rallies since the BoJ announcement of the QQE upgrade
  • The conviction of a Yen cross reversal is tepid technically and unstable fundamentally
  • We look at the risk, carry and intervention contributions to the direction of the Yen crosses

See how retail traders are positioning in the Yen crosses using the SSI statistics on the DailyFX Sentiment Page. Also, see what DailyFX analysts expect from the Japanese Yen through the rest of the second quarter here.

The two-day rally USD/JPY has posted through Tuesday is one of the sharpest rallies we have seen from the pair since the dramatic surge following the BoJ's QQE upgrade back in late October 2014. Given the speculative focus and wild disparity in expectations for the the Yen crosses and this pair in particular, such a move will stir deeper sentiments. While trader debate can generate volatility, it is difficult to translate into a clear trend. We need to find a more grounded, fundamental motivation to guide follow through or falter. Risk trends have rallied this past session through US and global equities. Relative monetary policy has not witnessed a sudden spark of divergent policy bearings, but the contrast remains. And, intervention is a constant worry (or hope, depending on your view) amongst those trading Yen pairs. Which of these themes has supported this rebound and do they have staying power? We focus in on the Japanese Yen in today's Strategy Video.

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