Talking Points:
- Extremes do not signify an immediate exhaustion and a reversal of conditions - extremes can grow more extreme
- The Dollar rounded up from an 11-month low to charge its strongest four-day rally since November's peak
- For positioning, futures speculators hit a record long-gold view while the Yen stands near similar extremes
See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.
Extremes aren't always measured in highs and lows for price and value. Coming off a relatively mild week for event risk, trend development and volatility; it would seem that the seas are steady. However, a serene surface often masks remarkable imbalance that eventually erupts into significant movement. Through the close of this past week, a number of exceptional developments materialized. A strong upswing for the USDollar from an 11-month low offered an incredible price reaction to the weightiest retail forecast in nearly two-years. Underlying this quick swing, though, is a far more profound speculative view. For the Japanese Yen, extreme conditions risk triggering an equally disruptive intervention by policy officials. From risk trends, the reach for yield against an increasingly unsteady complacency is illustrated through price, cross-market conditions and VIX positioning. Finally, an outright extreme in gold positioning suggests the commodity's measured pace may not last for long. We focus on the extreme conditions behind the Dollar, Yen, 'risk' and gold in this weekend Strategy Video.
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