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RBA, US Jobs Data Key on Another Busy Week for FX Markets

RBA, US Jobs Data Key on Another Busy Week for FX Markets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar to refocus on Fed policy bets as post-BOJ volatility fades
  • Australian Dollar may see sharp moves regardless of RBA outcome
  • Pound eyes PMI roundup, Kiwi Dollar topping pattern intact for now

Losing money trading the FX markets? This might be why.

The US Dollar slumped late last week as a BOJ-inspired USD/JPY drop reverberated around the financial markets. Japanese markets are closed for holidays for most of this week, which may see markets refocus on Fed policy bets as the principal catalyst for the greenback. On this front, Friday's release of April's Employment report is in focus.

The RBA monetary policy announcement lines up as another potent volatility trigger. Traders price in slightly better-than-even odds for a 25 basis point rate cut (57 percent), but the gap between those betting on easing versus the status quo is so small that significant re-positioning is likely regardless of the result. This is likely to make for a sharp response from the Aussie Dollar and - given last week's BOJ-fueled fireworks - may spill over into the broader markets.

Elsewhere, the British Pound will look to April's PMI figures to drive BOE bets. UK news-flow has shown signs of improvement in recently and more of the same may inspire a supportive shift in the policy outlook. On the other hand New Zealand data has soured somewhat and traders continue to expect an RBNZ cut in June. First-quarter employment data that underpins this view may push the Kiwi Dollar lower, erasing some of last week's gains.

--- Created by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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