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Video: Dollar, S&P 500, Oil - When Traditional Analysis Falters

Video: Dollar, S&P 500, Oil - When Traditional Analysis Falters

2016-04-21 00:28:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • Fundamentals and technicals are not universally agreed upon analysis techniques
  • Market views and bias are a cumulative evaluation of many traders with different expectations and priorities
  • When the focus shifts, the transitional phase is better evaluated from a 'market conditions' perspective

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

The claims of exasperation that 'these markets don't make sense anymore' are rising again. Speculation on production cuts hasn't dictated the expected, erratic oil move. The Dollar isn't moving with every up and down in Fed speculation. And, risk trends are not folding to the big-picture fundamental concerns that are rising on a weekly basis. Fundamental and technical analysis are both a reflection of group speculation. The market is a broad measure where importance amongst the majority can change with seemingly little warning and technicals can suddenly be rendered irrelevant. In these transitional phases, we can find additional support through general market conditions. A reasonable question to ask for example is: if sentiment is rebalancing, are there more bulls or bears that need to unwind. We look to ground upended analysis and frustrated traders in today's Strategy Video.

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