Talking Points:
•Volatility measures have dropped across most asset classes with a notable exception from FX
•Fundamentals show little reason for optimism, while January and August are clear lessons on complacency
•Traders should remain dubious of perceived cam and keep track of the unique influences keep the FX fires lit
Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.
Volatility measures across asset classes have once again ebbed in the course of the market's manic-crisis behavior as of late. If the VIX and cross asset counterparts are indeed reflecting sentiment, it is the most unnerving calm seen in some time. We don't have to look very far back into recent history to see the market's tranquility smashed by systemic risk aversion and delveraging. And, just in case the draw anesthetizing draw of complacency was particularly powerful, we have two such historical lessons from the panicked move through August 24 and the dramatic tumble that kicked off the new trading year. Fundamentals have shown little outlet for the optimism necessary for value investors and the speculative drive is equally lacking. So, what should we make of recent developments? What does the FX market's near, four-year high volatility reading mean compared to its deflated counterparts? We discuss this in today's Strategy Video.
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