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  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.60% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.91% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.96% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HWVSmqaiYF
  • The amount of breakouts the #USD saw against its major peers this week was fairly impressive Lots of opportunities here for reversing dominant downtrends that have been prevailing for about 14-15 months Stay tuned for my USD weekly technical outlook coming out this weekend!
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.19% Silver: -0.41% Gold: -0.57% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/J6vFrm0Psb
  • Post-Fed, plunging commodity prices are weighing down growth-sensitive currencies like the Canadian Dollar. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/RwM9qu0Zjv https://t.co/u6WFpqfcdZ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 85.22%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 70.57%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/O3dA4qOEid
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% FTSE 100: 0.09% Germany 30: 0.06% Wall Street: -0.02% US 500: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MFEjkHP34f
  • Fed's Kashkari: Maximum employment means at the very least back to pre-COVID levels of employment
  • Fed's Kashkari: - I am opposed to rate hikes at least through 2023 - The labor market is still in a deep hole; it will take some time to get people reattached to the work force
  • Fed's Kashkari: - The Fed's interest rate dot plot has provided too-hawkish guidance in the past, I am in favor of getting rid of it - I don't believe the Delta variant of COVID will force the US to return to lockdown
  • Fed's Kashkari: - The Fed is in a decent financial position, therefore it is fine to talk about tapering monthly asset purchases - I am not seeing evidence of unanchored inflation expectations, but if that does occur then we would need to adjust
US Jobs and Inflation Data, Fed-Speak in the Spotlight

US Jobs and Inflation Data, Fed-Speak in the Spotlight

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

What does FXCM traders' US Dollar positioning say about its trend? Find out here!

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar may rise as inflation, jobs data boosts rate hike outlook
  • Fed-speak aims to realign official, market-based policy expectations
  • USD/CAD long trade sought on a pullback, EUR/GBP short in play

Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations are in focus as critical economic data flow crosses the wires against the backdrop of a packed calendar of scheduled commentary from central officials. The Fed's favored PCE inflation gauge and an updated set of employment figures are due to cross the wires while remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen headline a docket featuring six different officials across the dovish to hawkish spectrum.

In the Eurozone, traders are likely to look past the preliminary set of German and region-wide inflation figures to focus on the publication of minutes from the last ECB policy meeting. President Mario Draghi and company unveiled an aggressive boost to stimulus efforts but hinted that further cuts to the deposit rate are unlikely. Investors unnerved by this apparent admission of ECB helplessness may be relieved to see the remarks implied a preference for unconventional easing for subsequent efforts (if those are deemed necessary), which could weigh on the Euro.

Tactically, a short EUR/GBP position remains in play having been entered at 0.7854 last week with a stop-loss to be activated on a daily close above 0.7928 and an initial target at 0.7705. Additionally, an entry order to buy USD/CAD at 1.3232 has been established. The trade will aim for an initial target of 1.3362 if triggered.

--- Created by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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