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US Jobs and Inflation Data, Fed-Speak in the Spotlight

US Jobs and Inflation Data, Fed-Speak in the Spotlight

Ilya Spivak,

What does FXCM traders' US Dollar positioning say about its trend? Find out here !

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar may rise as inflation, jobs data boosts rate hike outlook
  • Fed-speak aims to realign official, market-based policy expectations
  • USD/CAD long trade sought on a pullback, EUR/GBP short in play

Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations are in focus as critical economic data flow crosses the wires against the backdrop of a packed calendar of scheduled commentary from central officials. The Fed's favored PCE inflation gauge and an updated set of employment figures are due to cross the wires while remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen headline a docket featuring six different officials across the dovish to hawkish spectrum.

In the Eurozone, traders are likely to look past the preliminary set of German and region-wide inflation figures to focus on the publication of minutes from the last ECB policy meeting. President Mario Draghi and company unveiled an aggressive boost to stimulus efforts but hinted that further cuts to the deposit rate are unlikely. Investors unnerved by this apparent admission of ECB helplessness may be relieved to see the remarks implied a preference for unconventional easing for subsequent efforts (if those are deemed necessary), which could weigh on the Euro.

Tactically, a short EUR/GBP position remains in play having been entered at 0.7854 last week with a stop-loss to be activated on a daily close above 0.7928 and an initial target at 0.7705. Additionally, an entry order to buy USD/CAD at 1.3232 has been established. The trade will aim for an initial target of 1.3362 if triggered.

--- Created by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.