Talking Points:
- USDollar has dropped as much as 3 percent since the G-20 meeting held in Shanghai ended on February 27
- The timing of the turn and the event has led to market rumor that an plan was made to intervene on the Dollar
- A so-called 'Shanghai Accord' would be difficult to implement and unlikely to work effectively in current conditions
Positioning can reflect on conviction. See how retail traders are positioning in the Dollar using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.
Three weeks of Dollar losses has some market observers and participants looking back to the late-February G-20 meeting and asking whether there was in fact a deal made. The gathering in Shanghai ended with the familiar rhetoric in vows to do everything necessary to support growth, promote financial stability and avoid unfair competition. That seemed a tepid response to growing economic and financial issues along with obvious risks (China, emerging markets, debt and more). With such concerns still floating around, it isn't surprising to see speculation arise that perhaps a deal was struck behind closed doors. With a idealized scenario from the past to draw from (the Plaza Accord in 1985), a similar initial outcome seems evidence of equivalent motivators. Have the worlds' central banks secretly agreed to coordinate their policy efforts, and is their focus set upon a depreciation of the US Dollar as it was 30 years ago? We consider the logic and realities of the so-called 'Shanghai Accord' speculation that has circulated the financial headlines in this weekend Strategy Video.
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