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How Will the Fed Decision and Forecast Effect the Dollar, SPX?

How Will the Fed Decision and Forecast Effect the Dollar, SPX?

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will give rate decision and update its forecasts Wednesday at 18:00 GMT
  • After the unexpected reaction to recent ECB and BoJ policy changes, monetary policy's influence on markets is in flux
  • While the Dollar has rebalanced heading into the event, 'risk trends' have notably leveraged an optimistic view

How are retail traders positioning in the Dollar heading into the FOMC decision? See how speculative traders anticipate and react to the important event risk using the FXCM SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page.

Following the unexpected and volatile responses to the ECB's and BoJ's recent monetary policy upgrades, the tension surrounding the already high-profile Fed meeting is almost painful. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) board will announce their decision on policy Wednesday afternoon, and the probability of a change to rates to follow December's 'liftoff' is particularly low. However, that doesn't ease the pressure in this event risk. Beyond accounting for a non-negligible hawkish surprise, we have a more detailed update from the US central bank that includes a press conference from Chairwoman Yellen and forecasts. While the economic projections are important for shaping the pace of monetary policy, it is the forecasts for interest rates themselves that will cut straight to the heart of speculation. We discuss the importance of this event to the Dollar's standing and the broader financial market in today's Strategy Video.

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