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NFPs Presage Fed Forecasts for Dollar, Volatility for Equities

NFPs Presage Fed Forecasts for Dollar, Volatility for Equities

2016-03-04 00:38:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • NFPs is historically one of the more consistent market-moving economic events
  • The influence of this event risk carries over to relative monetary policy and further global investor sentiment
  • Still-deflated interest rate expectations and a two-week rally in risk trends will skew the impact of certain scenarios

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors ahead of the NFPs - and after its release - on DailyFX or bring the figures to your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

A tumble in the Dollar and rally from risk-oriented assets sets the stage for Friday's NFPs release. The US labor report is one of the most consistent market-moving scheduled events over through modern times. And, the context with which we have seen fundamentals development recently, that potential is just as urgent as ever. There are two general themes that this data will cater to: relative monetary policy and sentiment trends. The most volatile response will be afforded through risk appetite, which will emphasize the immediacy in data through payrolls and then the jobless rate. Given the recent rebound in sentiment, the skew is greatest for a 'risk-off' interpretation that favors the likes of USDJPY, NZDJPY and equities among other assets. With the Fed's bearings, doubt is already deeply sowed; so the more unsettling outcome would be one that supports a rebound in FOMC rate hikes in 2016. That would cater to EURUSD, GBPUSD and NZDUSD among others. We discuss the labor data, the skewed scenarios and market opportunities in today's Strategy Video.

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