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Fed, ECB and RBA Rate Forecasts will Skew Currency Reactions

Fed, ECB and RBA Rate Forecasts will Skew Currency Reactions

2016-02-29 23:15:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• Speculation can fundamentally alter the impact that news and theme development can have on the markets

• We have seen a Fed hike result in little USD move, while ECB and RBA cuts rallied the EUR and AUD respectively

• Expectations are shaping the scenarios for key monetary policy views and majors' positioning in the near future What are the Traits of Successful Traders?

See what our studies have found to be the most common pitfalls of retail FX traders.

Monetary policy is once again taking the reins on currencies like the Dollar, Euro and Yen - though the moves are not following textbook paths. When speculation becomes involved in fundamentals, the picture blurs and the reaction to scenarios can become skewed. With the global economy slowing, volatility rising and headline risks multiplying; the anticipation and market-moving influence of key event risk to themes is taking on remarkable skew. Few places reflect the leverage that speculation can impart on FX like the Dollar and the Euro. It is also useful to include the Aussie Dollar in this list given the RBA decision today. We consider positioning through speculation against tangible fundamentals and a review of recent history for this important fundamental driver in today's Strategy Video.

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