Talking Points:
• Brexit and commodities have been major trends recently, but their drive may cool moving forward
• The importance of the G20 gathering doesn't offer circumstance for a meaningful coordination
• Monetary policy may once again be the king of trends with the Fed outlook heating up and jobs data on deck
See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold as well as our favorite 2016 trading opportunities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.
If you want to find the volatility and trend developments in the markets, the best bet is to keep tabs on the key fundamental themes in the market. Scheduled and unscheduled event risk gains a far more effective foothold in market influence when it hits a nerve that connects directly to the central speculative nervous system. Where a month ago, we only had one or two active themes; heading into the new trading week, we are dealing with many. That can leverage volatility but it can also disrupt trends as motivators compete and conflict. Looking ahead, Brexit speculations' toppling of the Pound may lose traction as key levels and a dependency on headlines are realized. Commodities have already lost traction in the headlines and speculative circle, and the dependency on rumor of production changes will keep it that way. The G-20 meeting will be a fount of speculation for a range of themes - risk appetite, China, emerging markets and more - but a decisive outcome is unlikely. Perhaps the most promising spark for activity and even trend development will be US rate speculation. With doubt over a follow up hike in 2016 thawing and the NFPs on deck, this theme may carry the least static. We discuss the major themes to watch moving forward and the trading potential it will generate in this weekend Strategy Video.
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