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After a Two-Day Tumble, Will NFPs Save or Sacrifice Dollar?

After a Two-Day Tumble, Will NFPs Save or Sacrifice Dollar?

2016-02-05 01:23:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The Dollar has suffered its biggest two-day loss through Thursday since July 2013

• A weakened currency leverages the focus on key fundamentals, and jobs data hits at the heart of rate forecasts

• NFPs often stirs stronger volatility responses, but trends will look to bigger picture, relative considerations

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

If we were going to see the USDollar collapse into a deeper bear trend, this would be the technical lead up and impending data you would expect could accomplish it. The Greenback has dropped sharply these past two trading sessions, bringing the equally-weighted index and a number of the 'Major' crosses to key levels. Yet, absent additional cannon fire to sink the currency; the long-term trend is still decisively bullish and the core fundamental imbalance still favors its advantage. The US labor report is one of the more capable rounds of event risk to tap a deeper fundamental nerve that can tip the scales of such an established trend. The wide gulf between the market's view of Fed hikes this year and the FOMC's own projections can shift the gravity in the speculators' favor to meaningful weigh the Dollar. This is not a low hurdle to leap though. An in-line - and especially hawkish - outcome can work to return the market to trend. What do we watch in this event risk and what scenarios does the Dollar face? That is the focus of today's Strategy Video.

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