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Webinar: Fundamental Forecast - FOMC Decision Top Event Risk, Risk Trends Top Theme

Webinar: Fundamental Forecast - FOMC Decision Top Event Risk, Risk Trends Top Theme

John Kicklighter, Contributor

Talking Points:

• The top fundamental theme for 2016 so far has been 'risk trends', not relative monetary policy

• Key event risk ahead includes the FOMC and RBNZ rate decisions, US and UK GDP

• While the S&P 500 acts as an easier (more defined) sentiment gauge, correlations are the more important factor

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors in your charts using the FXCM SSI snapshot.

Watch the recording of John Kicklighter's coverage of the FX market's reaction to the FOMC Rate Decision. Given the Fed had just hiked in December, it was highly unlikely they would keep the iron to the market's flesh with an immediate follow up. With a 99 percent market probability (in swaps), the central bank held the benchmark range at 0.25 - 0.50 percent. It was the statement that truly matters. And, in that brief report, there was nothing to diminish their December forecast for 4 hikes in 2016. That sets a very stringent course starting in March; but their concern for factors outside the 'dual mandate' can make future FOMC decisions very volatility inducing. We discuss the FOMC decision and more in the live event.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.