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China GDP Data, ECB Meeting May Lift Market Confidence

China GDP Data, ECB Meeting May Lift Market Confidence

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • China GDP Data May Top Forecasts, Boosting Risk Appetite
  • ECB to Boost Risk-On Mood if Draghi Hints at More Stimulus
  • Sentiment Swings May Cloud Impact of US CPI on Fed Bets

A recovery in market sentiment may take center stage in the week ahead after another aggressive bout of risk aversion. Fourth-quarter Chinese GDP figures may begin to brighten investors' mood if the outcome tops consensus forecasts, in line with an emerging trend for news-flow from the world's second-largest economy over recent weeks. The promise of stimulus expansion following soft CPI figures at this week's ECB monetary policy announcement may likewise prove supportive.

The US CPI report is due to show core inflation hit a multi-year high at 2.1 percent year-on-year, seemingly supporting the case for an ambitious Fed rate hike cycle. Tightening bets have withered alongside the drop in risky assets since the beginning of the month however. This means an improvement in risk appetite my likewise fuel some normalization on the Fed outlook front. Against this backdrop, CPI may fail to register as a discrete catalyst, at least in the near term. A status-quo monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Canada may likewise pass with little fanfare.

--- Prepared by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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