Video: Top Trading Themes for the FX and Equities Through Year End
• The USDollar ended October with a rejection of 12-year highs while the SPX posted its best run in 4 years
• Top fundamental themes through the final two months of the year remain risk trends and relative monetary policy
• There is doubt over year-end seasonality studies while both the Fed and ECB have leverage December speculation
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We have just closed out the fourth best month for US equities in 12 years while the Dollar failed to breach new highs of an equal duration. October leveraged a lot of drive from the dominant fundamental trends of the past year, and these key themes are unlikely to relinquish their influence in the final months of the trading year. Rather than intensity, the question for these market drivers is conviction (direction). Operating on seasonal measures, risk appetite traditionally enjoys a strong advance through the final months. Yet, the structural participation and fundamental roots of the drive give ample reason to question history simply repeating itself. Divergent monetary policy in the meantime will be kept to the fire particularly as major central banks at the opposite end of the spectrum - the Fed debating when to hike to the ECB weighing a QE upgrade - anchor speculators' sights on December. We look at the big picture for trading through the coming months in this weekend Strategy Video.
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.