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Strategy Video: The Seasonal Return of Volume and Volatility

Strategy Video: The Seasonal Return of Volume and Volatility

2015-09-15 01:20:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• There are seasonal peaks and troughs in activity through the investment year

• We are currently shifting from the 'Summer Lull' into the traditional traditional Fall volatility pickup

• Will the FOMC decision this week act as the same kind of talking point that Lehman Brothers offered 2008?

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The collapse of Lehman Brothers in the Fall of 2008 concentrated selling pressure in the financial system and triggered one of the strongest selloffs in recent financial history. Yet, would it have wrought the same kind of market destruction had it occured during a period of time that maintains lower volume and quieter trading conditions? While that event was certainly dramatic and influential, the conditions behind the market at the time amplified the headlines into motivated repositioning. It so happens that we are once again making the transition from 'Summer Lull' to the more heavily trafficked Fall period. We have already suffered a painful stumble for the S&P 500 and other capital benchmarks through mid-August, but the motivated selling seems to have stalled. Is this a permanent plateau or is an event like this Thursday's FOMC going to act as a lightening rod for a revival in liquidity? We discuss the shift in activity with the seasonality turns in today's Strategy Video.

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