Strategy Video: Summer Seasonality Effect Makes Dollar Break, S&P 500 Reversal More Difficult
• The 'Summer Lull' is one of the more common seasonality effects, and it does impact the FX market
• With the risk appetite drive losing conviction after a multi-year rally, a big turn would take decisive shift
• Outside of a shorter February and holiday laden December, August SPX volume is historically lowest of the year
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Without an appreciation of the backdrop for market conditions, some of the financial benchmarks look as if they are on the verge of tremendous moves. The S&P 500 has carved out a 2015 congestion pattern after years of rally and looks primed either for a momentous reversal or revival of its existing trend. Meanwhile, the USDollar has established a similar pattern on a shorter scale but no less robust a conviction. The timing for when these patterns are resolved - not just broken but further find follow through - will be significantly influenced by certain seasonality conditions. Historically, market participation drops through the summer months in the Northern Hemispher both for practical and traditional purposes. The results can be seen in measures like the lull in S&P 500 volume, but it can certainly be felt in price action through time. So, how should be adapt as August unfolds? We discuss that in today's Strategy Video.
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.