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Strategy Video: The Fed’s Data Dependence Leverages Importance of August Payrolls

Strategy Video: The Fed’s Data Dependence Leverages Importance of August Payrolls

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The United States' monthly labor report will carry a greater weight than it usually holds this week

• After the Fed maintained its view for 2015 rate hikes, the 'data dependency' for the liftoff was leveraged

• A decisively bullish showing for the data can drive USDollar to 12-year highs

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Already one of the market's most studied and market-moving event risks, this month's NFPs report will carry a heavier influence over the Dollar. When the Federal Reserve wrapped up their monetary policy meeting this past month, they notably didn't soften their view for policy outlook. That means they were carrying through their assumptions from the June meeting at which they projected two rate hikes through 2015. A hike - much less hikes - are not assured, but they are probable. Whether or not they are realized depends on the course of data. On that line of thinking, few individual data series have the kind of influence over Fed mandate as the monthly labor report. What scenarios should we prepare for and what pairs are better positioned for different outcomes? We focus on the NFPs and its market impact in today's Strategy Video.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.