Talking Points:
• Market trends and themes share similar traits to the standard 'business life cycle'
• In the S&P 500's incredible climb we have seen early speculation, rapid growth, and saturation
• Individual trades can be evaluated as a cycle with probability and returns key variables
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Is the S&P 500's exceptional bull trend closer to its beginning or its end? How about the Dollar or EURUSD? Traditional analysis - technical, fundamental, market conditions - helps us to determine where the market is in its natural cycle and where it is likely to go. Yet, that assessment requires context. Understanding the general stages of the various phases is important for evaluating whether trades are worth while, what to expect for return and holding period, conviction for reasonable sizing, and other crucial elements to our assessment of the markets as well as individual trades. In this weekend Strategy Video, we look at a basic cycle for trends, themes and even individual trades using the S&P 500, USDollar and EURUSD.
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