Video: Both Dollar and S&P 500 Positioned for NFP Volatility
• Top event risk to close this week is the US labor data - a spark for US rate forecasts and risk trends
• Pressure has been leveraged with the USDollar on the verge of a bearish break and following the SPX rally
• Look beyond the headline NFPs and establish first whether the market cares about 'risk' or rates
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Fundamental event risk requires a few elements to be truly market moving. And in the case of the upcoming January US labor data, we are checking off all of the necessary items. Short-term volatility is general a product of surprise - that we will have to wait to see in the data itself. However, follow through is very much a measure of the data itself. Given the FX market's focus on monetary policy (the Fed's first rate hike this year), the influence this flood of statistics can exact is significant. Furthermore, a precarious position in global financial market sentiment can amplify this data's impact by stirring doubt into repositioning. With the USDollar on the verge of reversing a seven-month trend and the S&P 500 at the top of a constructive technical pattern, the potential is as high as the market's anxiety. We discuss this event risk and the setups that are better suited to various scenarios in today's Strategy Video.
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.