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Strategy Video: The Dollar Is Looking for a Record-Breaking Run in 2015

Strategy Video: The Dollar Is Looking for a Record-Breaking Run in 2015

2014-12-31 20:10:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The Dollar Indexes have advanced for 6 straight months, matching the record bullish performance

• While a relatively hawkish Fed will continue to support the USD, its marginal support is waning

• The Dollar may suffer in the event of a broad market de-leverage, but panic would add a new drive

What do the analysts thing of the Dollar's trading potential in the New Year? Read the DailyFX Top Trading Opportunities for 2015 report.

The Dollar was the best performing major of 2014. To close out the year, the Greenback has notched a sixth consecutive monthly rally - matching the longest series of gains on that time frame on record. Can the currency break that record in January? Technicals (with key technical patterns for EURUSD and USDJPY) and market conditions (a rise in volume and the hold of 'status quo') support a continued climb. However, the fundamentals are less reassuring. A relatively hawkish lean by the Fed has generated much of the Dollar's climb to this point, but it will be difficult to set the US rate bearing much further apart from its counterparts. Meanwhile, the first stage of a 'risk aversion' shift for the markets would likely see the Dollar caught up in profit taking. Only when fear and deleveraging intensify, will the currency's safe haven appeal truly kick in. What does 2015 hold in store for the Greenback? We discuss that in today's Strategy video.

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