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Video: Another Fundamental Theme Threatens to Drive Euro Lower

Video: Another Fundamental Theme Threatens to Drive Euro Lower

2014-12-09 22:37:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• There are three venues of major concern for the Euro: ECB stimulus, capital flight and a return to crisis

• To this point, the central bank's vows to leverage monetary policy have strong armed the currency lower

• Turmoil in Greece however has set in motion the existing pieces of a return to regional financial fears

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Can EURUSD break below 1.2200 before the year closes? The natural liquidity drain expected of the final weeks of the trading year works against such significant change. However, a strong fundamental driver can overwhelm the stand often taken by the remaining market participants and even draw those on vacation back to their terminals. For the Euro, there are multiple avenues of concern. The ECB's stimulus efforts have proven a key driver to this point, but the decision on a full-scale QE program seems to have been pushed back to 2015. However, two other lesser-appreciated critical themes are starting to stir. The implications of capital flight in the event of global risk aversion is still a difficult threshold to cross. Alternatively, a revived Euro-area financial fear between rising bond yields, struggling economies and austerity standoffs looks to be unfolding. In today's Strategy Video, we take a look at the Euro and what it would take to catalyze the next big leg for the currency...even before year end.

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