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Strategy Video: What Happens Should Risk Trends Collapse Next Week?

Strategy Video: What Happens Should Risk Trends Collapse Next Week?

2014-10-11 00:15:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

We discussed how to identify a market-wide 'risk aversion' move yesterday

• Now we cover what the fallout in sentiment would entail given the unstable backdrop it developed on

• The Yen crosses will prove early movers on risk aversion but EURUSD may be the most exposed

See the DailyFX Analysts' forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound and Gold through the 4Q on our DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Given the messy close for the markets this past week, it is important to discuss what a market-wide deleverage of risky positioning would entail. Raising the threat level of a break in complacency and subsequent need to unwind exposure were key technical breaks in the US equity indexes, a drive to extreme for volatility measures and other important cues. How would a shift in sentiment and positioning actually play out? Does a five-and-a-half year bull trend, record usage of leverage, multi-decade lows in participant and exposure to exceptionally risky asset types change the mechanics of a turn? And, what FX trades are better suited for the near-term reaction versus those that face deeper fundamental trends? We discuss this in the weekend Trading Video.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.